Tuesday, April 19, 2005

Can AMLO go back to work next Monday?

AMLO has announced plans to go back to work next Monday to demonstrate that though he has lost his immunity, he has not been removed from office. In a bizarre twist, the legislators that removed that immunity agree that he still holds office until the AG's office formally files charges against him.

The AG and President's office are taking a harder stance. Both have said that the desafuero not only removed AMLO's immunity, but also removes him from office.

The President's spokeperson, probably in response to the comments made by the Secretary of State yesterday, also announced that the President has not considered pardoning AMLO. Granted, Creel's comments yesterday about a "political arrangement" were vague, but clearly Creel and Fox are not on the same page. (Maybe this is because Creel and Fox's wife both want to be President in 2006.)

In any event, even those that wanted AMLO's desafuero do not agree on his current status. And some may even be trying to backtrack from the political fallout that the desafuero has caused.

Meanwhile, AMLO has stated various times over the last few days that he will not seek revenge when he becomes President against those who voted for the desafuero.

"Si la mayoría de los mexicanos me eligen Presidente, no voy a actuar con venganza ni les voy a fabricar delitos a mis adversarios políticos"...

"'Si hay diferencias, que las hay, en cuanto a concepción de país, en cuanto a proyecto de nación, esas diferencias las tenemos que resolver mediante el método democrático. Es en las elecciones donde el pueblo va a decidir qué candidato, qué partido, qué programa debe prevalecer en nuestro país a partir de las elecciones de 2006"

My interpretation of this? AMLO is trying to tell his political enemies that once he becomes President, he will not try to punish them. Why? It reiterates his confidence that he will be elected. It also provides an incentive for his enemies to soften their stance because they can be assured that the costs of AMLO's victory will not be too high for them. You can think of it in terms of Dahl's cost of suppression versus costs of inclusion in a transition to democracy. You're more willing to allow your enemies to participate if you think the costs of their victory will not be too high.

posted by Michelle @ 10:09 AM,

3 Comments:

At 4/20/2005 1:54 PM,  Roger Gathmann said...

To me, AMLO's assurance that he won't take revenge on his enemies has a more primitive cause: the desire not to be shot. The fear of being assassinated while out on the campaign trail is -- alas -- a rational one.

And its effects are rational, too. Violence is tactically wise if it can guarantee that even your opponents won't dare to hold you responsible for your corruption (re the recent sustaining of the immunity of a PRI congressmen in regard to charges of illegally taking PEMEX funds) even if they achieve the supposedly highest office in the land. In this way, they narrow AMLO's options -- either an unpalatable radicalization or an unpalatable capitulation to the same old forces behind the PRI.

 

At 4/20/2005 1:54 PM,  Roger Gathmann said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

 

At 4/27/2005 1:32 PM,  Michelle said...

Good point. AMLO definitely doesn't want to be shot, but I think his enemies would be too smart to try such a thing. Accusations would fly and everyone else would just look bad.

I think he (AMLO) really wants to give the PAN and PRI the opportunity to fix their political mistake (the desafuero) and try to save face, while still making it clear that he will be a candidate in 2006.

 

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